Recent events in Russia show that it can no longer exist in its current form, and the international community should not be afraid of the replacement of Putin's regime. This opinion was expressed by Mykhailo Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, in an interview with the Atlantic Council's UkraineAlert.
He called the Wagner rebellion one of the proofs of the internal weakness of the Russian Federation and Putin's regime, which signals the inevitability of changes in Russia.
"The Wagner rebellion has shown that there is nothing behind the Kremlin's propaganda facade. Now everyone is convinced that Putin is an empty shell. The king is naked. He has no control over the situation inside Russia and is not popular at all. Ordinary Russians are still afraid to say that they are against Putin, but as soon as Wagner started to rise, the audience applauded. At the same time, no one showed any interest in defending Putin's regime," stated Mykhailo Podolyak.
He believes that the unfinished rebellion has caused irreparable damage to Putin's reputation among the Russian elite. For years, the Kremlin has preached the mantra that Russia's future depends on Vladimir Putin, and after the Wagner PMC rebellion, many members of the elite stopped believing it.
"They now realize that Putin is not capable of performing the key functions that any Russian ruler should have," the Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office is convinced.
"He has lost the powers of the supreme arbiter in internal disputes and cannot act as a guarantor of the elite's international interests. Most importantly, he showed cowardice. When the rebellion started, he disappeared. In the situation of Russia's authoritarian political culture, this is simply unforgivable. A weak tsar will not live long," he added.
Mykhailo Podolyak also noted that the Wagner rebellion was a long-awaited confirmation of Vladimir Putin's vulnerability, and expressed his belief that it provides the best insight into how the Russian invasion of Ukraine will develop in the coming months. After all, after the failure of the rebellion, it became clear that the Russian president cannot take the loyalty of the Russian army for granted.
In addition, the morale of the aggressor country's army has been further undermined by the fact that the Kremlin has not punished any Wagner PMC commander for his participation in the coup, despite the fact that several Russian servicemen were killed. Although Putin himself initially vowed to crush the rebellion, PMC commander Yevgeny Prigozhin and other leaders of the coup are still free and were even invited to the Kremlin for a personal meeting with the Russian dictator.
Mykhailo Podolyak believes that after such humiliation, other representatives of the Russian elite will try to "challenge" Vladimir Putin's power - it is only a matter of time.
According to the Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office, Ukraine's success at the front will be a catalyst for the next crisis in Russia.
"As Russia's internal struggle between warring factions unfolds, Ukraine will be able to regain full control over the country's internationally recognized borders. Eventually, we are likely to witness mass protests in Moscow and the fall of Putin's regime," said Mykhailo Podolyak.
At the same time, he warned Western partners, who may be afraid of the potential collapse of the Russian Federation, against attempts to artificially prolong the existence of Putin's regime.
"Russia will not cease to exist completely, but it should be clear to everyone that it cannot exist in its current form," said the Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office.
Mykhailo Podolyak claims that although Russia's complete defeat in Ukraine will lead to a number of security problems, the alternative is much worse.
He also emphasized the inadmissibility of any calls for a settlement of the war in Ukraine through negotiations and a freeze of the conflict. According to the Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office, attempts to impose a premature peace will be seen in Moscow as an invitation to a new war.
"Any attempt to reach some kind of compromise with Putin will mean the end of Ukrainian statehood. This is clear to us. And Ukrainians will not be the only victims," said Mykhailo Podolyak.
"If Russia is not defeated, Putin's invasion will be justified, and his entire regime will be given new life. The consequences for international security will be catastrophic. Why voluntarily make the world even more unstable?" he added.
The Advisor to the Head of the Presidential Office noted that the current war will be a turning point for the international audience and will lead to tectonic shifts in the perception of the countries of the former Soviet Union.
"Ukrainians are now demonstrating their strength on the battlefield. We can already see how the perception of Ukraine is changing. When Russia is defeated, we will finally witness a historic change in the international community's attitude towards the entire region," summarized Mykhailo Podolyak.